Elicitation for food microbial risk assessment: a probabilistic approach extending Risk Ranger proposal
[Elicitation pour l’évaluation des risques microbiologiques dans les aliments : vers une approche probabiliste de l’outil Risk Ranger]
Journal de la société française de statistique, Méthodes statistiques en agronomie, Tome 154 (2013) no. 3, pp. 113-123.

Ross et Sumner (2002) ont proposé un outil sous la forme d’une feuille de calcul Excel, Risk Ranger, pour une évaluation des risques simple et rapide des dangers microbiologiques dans les aliments. Il permet de comparer et classer les risques liés à certains aliments en identifiant les facteurs qui y contribuent le plus. La sortie de l’outil est un score unique calculé à partir de réponses à 11 questions. L’objectif de ce travail est de faire évoluer l’outil Risk Ranger vers une version probabiliste. Nous proposons une procédure d’élicitation de la variabilité à l’aide de deux quantiles de la distribution d’intérêt. De plus, un niveau d’incertitude est spécifié grâce au degré de confiance fourni par les experts sur ces quantiles. Le nouvel outil, également sous forme d’une feuille Excel, permet à l’expert de modifier de vérifier graphiquement presque instantanément les conséquences de ses réponses sur l’incertitude et la variabilité de la quantité d’intérêt pour mieux les ajuster à son expertise.

Ross and Sumner (2002) proposed a convenient tool, Risk Ranger, for early-stage risk assessment of microbial hazards in food systems. The authors describe the tool as being a simple way of comparing and classifying food-related risks and highlighting main factors that contribute to food safety. The output of the tool is a risk score based on answers to 11 questions. The objective of this work was to extend Risk Ranger towards a probabilistic version, distinguishing uncertainty and variability. For each question, we propose an elicitation procedure where the expert is asked for two quantiles to assess variability. Experts are also asked on their degree of confidence for the given quantiles to incorporate an uncertainty level. The new tool, also an Excel worksheet, allows the expert to check graphically, almost instantly, the uncertainty and variability of the variable of interest from the elicited quantiles and then to interactively modify them according to his/her view.

Keywords: elicitation, risk assessment, variability, uncertainty
Mot clés : élicitation, appréciation des risques, variabilité, incertitude 
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Guillier, Laurent; Kabunda, Jean-Marc; Denis, Jean-Baptiste; Albert, Isabelle. Elicitation for food microbial risk assessment: a probabilistic approach extending Risk Ranger proposal. Journal de la société française de statistique, Méthodes statistiques en agronomie, Tome 154 (2013) no. 3, pp. 113-123. http://www.numdam.org/item/JSFS_2013__154_3_113_0/

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