A model for pandemic control through isolation policy
RAIRO - Operations Research - Recherche Opérationnelle, Tome 54 (2020) no. 6, pp. 1875-1890.

In this paper we model the dynamics of a spreading pandemic over a country using a new dynamical and decentralised differential model with the main objective of studying the effect of different policies of social isolation (social distancing) over the population to control the spread of the pandemic. A probabilistic infection process with time lags is introduced in the dynamics with the main contribution being the proposed model to explicitly look at levels of interaction between towns and regions within the considered country. We believe the strategies and findings here will help practitioners, planners and Governments to put in place better strategies to control the spread of pandemics, thus saving lives and minimizing the impact of pandemia on socio-economic development and the populations livelihood.

DOI : 10.1051/ro/2020133
Classification : 34A34, 49K30, 37M05
Mots-clés : Pandemic modelling, spatial dynamics, optimization, simulation 
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     author = {Moyo, Sibusiso and Cruz, Luis Gustavo Zelaya and Carvalho, Rafael Lima de and Faye, Roger Marcelin and Tabakov, Pavel Yaroslav and Mora-Camino, Felix},
     title = {A model for pandemic control through isolation policy},
     journal = {RAIRO - Operations Research - Recherche Op\'erationnelle},
     pages = {1875--1890},
     publisher = {EDP-Sciences},
     volume = {54},
     number = {6},
     year = {2020},
     doi = {10.1051/ro/2020133},
     mrnumber = {4186530},
     language = {en},
     url = {http://www.numdam.org/articles/10.1051/ro/2020133/}
}
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%A Mora-Camino, Felix
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Moyo, Sibusiso; Cruz, Luis Gustavo Zelaya; Carvalho, Rafael Lima de; Faye, Roger Marcelin; Tabakov, Pavel Yaroslav; Mora-Camino, Felix. A model for pandemic control through isolation policy. RAIRO - Operations Research - Recherche Opérationnelle, Tome 54 (2020) no. 6, pp. 1875-1890. doi : 10.1051/ro/2020133. http://www.numdam.org/articles/10.1051/ro/2020133/

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