In this study, we develop a behavioral portfolio selection model that incorporates robust estimators for model inputs in order to reduce the need to change the portfolio over consecutive periods. It also includes Conditional Value at Risk as a sub-additive risk measure, which is preferable in behavioral portfolio selection. Finally, we model a varying risk attitude in a causal network in which investor behavioral biases and latest realized return are related to using a causation algorithm. We also provide a case study in Tehran Stock Exchange, where the results disclose that albeit our model is not mean-variance efficient, it selects portfolios that are robust, well diversified, and have less utility loss compared to a well-known behavioral portfolio model.
Accepté le :
DOI : 10.1051/ro/2017056
Mots-clés : Behavioral portfolio selection, , robust estimator, conditional value at risk, behavioral biases, causal relationship
@article{RO_2019__53_2_577_0, author = {Momen, Omid and Esfahanipour, Akbar and Seifi, Abbas}, title = {Portfolio selection with robust estimators considering behavioral biases in a causal network}, journal = {RAIRO - Operations Research - Recherche Op\'erationnelle}, pages = {577--591}, publisher = {EDP-Sciences}, volume = {53}, number = {2}, year = {2019}, doi = {10.1051/ro/2017056}, zbl = {1426.91254}, language = {en}, url = {http://www.numdam.org/articles/10.1051/ro/2017056/} }
TY - JOUR AU - Momen, Omid AU - Esfahanipour, Akbar AU - Seifi, Abbas TI - Portfolio selection with robust estimators considering behavioral biases in a causal network JO - RAIRO - Operations Research - Recherche Opérationnelle PY - 2019 SP - 577 EP - 591 VL - 53 IS - 2 PB - EDP-Sciences UR - http://www.numdam.org/articles/10.1051/ro/2017056/ DO - 10.1051/ro/2017056 LA - en ID - RO_2019__53_2_577_0 ER -
%0 Journal Article %A Momen, Omid %A Esfahanipour, Akbar %A Seifi, Abbas %T Portfolio selection with robust estimators considering behavioral biases in a causal network %J RAIRO - Operations Research - Recherche Opérationnelle %D 2019 %P 577-591 %V 53 %N 2 %I EDP-Sciences %U http://www.numdam.org/articles/10.1051/ro/2017056/ %R 10.1051/ro/2017056 %G en %F RO_2019__53_2_577_0
Momen, Omid; Esfahanipour, Akbar; Seifi, Abbas. Portfolio selection with robust estimators considering behavioral biases in a causal network. RAIRO - Operations Research - Recherche Opérationnelle, Tome 53 (2019) no. 2, pp. 577-591. doi : 10.1051/ro/2017056. http://www.numdam.org/articles/10.1051/ro/2017056/
[1] Spectral measures of risk: a coherent representation of subjective risk aversion. J. Banking Finance 26 (2002) 1505–1518.
,[2] Spectral risk measures and portfolio selection. J. Banking Finance 32 (2008) 1870–1882.
, and ,[3] Decision making in stock trading: An application of PROMETHEE. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 177 (2007) 673–683. | Zbl
, and ,[4] Economic implications of using a mean-VaR model for portfolio selection: A comparison with mean-variance analysis. J. Econ. Dyn. Control. 26 (2002) 1159–1193. | Zbl
and ,[5] CVaR as a Measure of Risk: Implications for Portfolio Selection, in EFA Annual Conference, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=424348 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.424348 (2003)
and ,[6] A Comparison of VaR and CVaR Constraints on Portfolio Selection with the Mean-Variance Model. Manag. Sci. 50 (2004) 1261–1273.
and ,[7] Portfolio selection with mental accounts and delegation. J. Banking Finance 35 (2011) 2637–2656.
and ,[8] Portfolio Selection with Mental Accounts and Estimation Risk. J. Empirical Finance 41 (2017) 161–186.
, and ,[9] Coherent Measures of Risk. Math. Finance 9 (1999) 203–228. | Zbl
, , and ,[10] Portfolio selection with mental accounts and background risk. J. Banking Finance 36 (2012) 968–980.
,[11] Optimal portfolio choice under loss aversion. Rev. Econ. Statistics. 86 (2004) 937–987.
, and ,[12] Multi-criteria decision making for choosing socially responsible investment within a behavioral portfolio theory framework: a new way of investing into a crisis environment. Ann. Oper. Res. 247 (2015) 549–580. | Zbl
, , and ,[13] Mean-Variance Portfolio Optimization with State Dependent Risk Aversion. Math. Finance 24 (2014) 1–24. | Zbl
, and ,[14] Time-varying risk aversion and unexpected inflation. J. Monetary Econom. 50 (2003) 1457–1498.
and ,[15] Goal-Based Wealth Management in Practice. J. Wealth Manag. 14 (2011) 17–26.
,[16] Do Wealth Fluctuations Generate Time-Varying Risk Aversion? Micro-Evidence on Individuals’ Asset Allocation (Digest Summary). Amer. Econom. Rev. 98 (2008) 713–736.
and ,[17] An asset allocation puzzle. Amer. Econom. Rev. 87 (1997) 181–191.
, and ,[18] Trading performance, disposition effect, overconfidence, representativeness bias, and experience of emerging market investors. J. Behavior. Decis. Making 20 (2007) 425–451.
and ,[19] Mean-risk analysis with enhanced behavioral content. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 239 (2014) 764–775. | Zbl
and ,[20] Coefficient alpha and the internal structure of tests. Psychometrika (1951). | Zbl
,[21] Portfolio optimization with mental accounts. J. Fin. Quantitative Anal. 45 (2010) 311–334.
, , and ,[22] Beyond mean-variance: portfolios with derivatives and non-normal returns in mental accounts, Available at, SSRN (2009) 1782309.
and ,[23] Options and structured products in behavioral portfolios. J. Econom. Dynamics Control. 37 (2013) 137–153. | Zbl
and ,[24] Size matters: Optimal calibration of shrinkage estimators for portfolio selection. J. Banking Finance 37 (2013) 3018–3034.
, and ,[25] Portfolio Selection with Robust Estimation. Oper. Res. 57 (2009) 560–577. | Zbl
and ,[26] Robust Investment Management With Uncertainty in Fund Managers’ Asset Allocation. RAIRO: OR 49 (2015) 821–844. | Zbl
and ,[27] Risk, ambiguity, and the Savage axioms. The Quarterly J. Econom. 75 (1961) 643–669. | Zbl
,[28] A genetic programming model to generate risk-adjusted technical trading rules in stock markets. Expert Syst. Appl. 38 (2011) 8438–8445.
and ,[29] Robust portfolios: contributions from operations research and finance. Ann. Oper. Res. 176 (2010) 191–220. | Zbl
, and ,[30] Robust portfolio optimization and management. John Wiley and Sons Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey (2007).
, , and ,[31] Simplified mean-variance portfolio optimisation. Math. Financial Econom. 6 (2012) 125–152. | Zbl
and ,[32] A behavioral analysis of investor diversification. Eur. J. Finance 20 (2014) 499–523.
, and ,[33] Prospect theory and mean-variance analysis: does it make a difference in wealth management?. Investment Manag. Financial Inov. 6 (2009) 122–129.
and ,[34] Robust portfolio selection problems. Math. Oper. Res. 28 (2003) 1–38. | Zbl
and ,[35] Risk Tolerance, Projection Bias, Vividness, and Equity Prices. J. Investing 15 (2006) 68–75.
, , , and ,[36] Robust optimization and portfolio selection: The cost of robustness. Eur. J. Operat. Res. 212 (2011) 417–428. | Zbl
, and ,[37] Risk aversion, wealth, and background risk. J. Europ. Econom. Association 6 (2008) 1109–1150.
and ,[38] Demography of risk aversion. J. Risk Insurance 68 (2001) 1–24.
and ,[39] Preference and belief: Ambiguity and competence in choice under uncertainty. J. Risk Uncertainty 4 (1991) 5–28. | Zbl
and ,[40] Risk aversion and incentive effects. Amer. Econom. Rev. 92 (2002) 1644–1655.
and ,[41] Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Forth, Hoboken, New Jersey (2015).
,[42] Behavioral portfolio selection in continuous time. Math. Finance 18 (2008) 385–426. | Zbl
and ,[43] Bayes-Stein Estimation for Portfolio Analysis. J. Financial Quant. Anal. 21 (1986) 279–292.
,[44] Value at risk: the new benchmark for managing financial risk, Third, McGraw-Hill, New York (2007).
,[45] Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. J. Econom. Soc. 47 (1979) 263–291. | Zbl
and ,[46] Choices, values, and frames. Amer. Psychologist. 39 (1984) 341–350.
and ,[47] Risk, uncertainty and profit, Dover Publication Inc., New York (2012).
,[48] Portfolio Optimization With Conditional Value-At-Risk Objective and Constraints. J. Risk. 4 (2002) 1–36.
, and ,[49] Robust portfolio optimization. Metrika. 55 (2002) 139–149. | Zbl
, and ,[50] Improved estimation of the covariance matrix of stock returns with an application to portfolio selection. J. Empirical Finance 10 (2003) 603–621.
and ,[51] Optimal Dynamic Portfolio Selection: Multiperiod Mean-Variance Formulation. Math. Finance 10 (2000) 387–406. | Zbl
and ,[52] Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection with Random Parameters in a Complete Market. Math. Oper. Res. 27 (2002) 101–120. | Zbl
and ,[53] Robust multi-period portfolio model based on prospect theory and ALMV-PSO algorithm. Expert Syst. Appl. 42 (2015) 7252–7262.
, , and ,[54] Between hope and fear: The psychology of risk, in: Advances in Experimental Social Psychology (1987) 255–295.
,[55]
, Explaining why so many households do not save (2000).[56] Portfolio Selection. J. Finance 7 (1952) 77–91.
,[57] Frames, biases, and rational decision-making in the human brain. Sci. 313 (2006) 684–687.
, , and ,[58] Robust modeling of multivariate financial data. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (2003).
and ,[59] Revised Mental Accounting: A Behavioral Portfolio Selection, in 12th Intern. Confer. Industrial Engineering (ICIE 2016), Tehran, Iran (2016) 25–26.
, and ,[60] A Robust Behavioral Portfolio Selection: Model with Investor Attitudes and Biases. Operat. Res. Inter. J. (2017) 1–20. DOI: 10.1007/s12351-017-0330-9.
, , ,[61] Prescriptive Portfolio Selection: A compromise between Fast and Slow Thinking. Qualitative Reserch Financial Markets 9 (2017) 98–116.
, and ,[62] The trouble with overconfidence. Psychological Rev. 115 (2008) 502–517.
and ,[63] Risk aversion revisited. Journal of Finance. 38 (1983) 1201–1216.
and ,[64] Optimal lot Solution to Cardinality Constrained Mean – Variance Formulation for Portfolio Selection. Math. Finance 16 (2006) 83–101.
, and ,[65] MGP-INTACTSKY: Multitree Genetic Programming-based learning of INTerpretable and ACcurate TSK sYstems for dynamic portfolio trading. Appl. Soft Computing J. 34 (2015) 449–462.
, and ,[66] Goals-based investing: Integrating traditional and behavioral finance. J. Wealth Manag. 6 (2004) 8–23.
,[67] Individual home bias, portfolio churning and performance. Eur. J. Finance 16 (2010) 329–351.
,[68] Questionnaires of Risk Tolerance, Regret, Overconfidence, and Other Investor Propensities. J. Investment Consulting 13 (2012) 54–63.
and ,[69] Robust Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection, Geneva (2004).
and ,[70] Behavioral Finance and Wealth Management: How to Build Optimal Portfolios That Account for Investor Biases, 2nd edition. John Wiley and Sons, New Jersey (2012).
,[71] Optimization of conditional value-at-risk. J. Risk 2 (2000) 21–41.
and ,[72] Effects of ``framing” on measures of risk tolerance: Financial planners are not immune. J. of Behavior. Econom. 19 (1990) 237–246.
and ,[73] How much does risk tolerance change? Quarterly J. Finance 2 (2012) 1–38.
,[74] The TETRAD project: Constraint based aids to causal model specification. Multivariate Behavior. Res. 33 (1998) 65–117.
, and ,[75] Applied Multivariate Techniques, New York (1996).
,[76] An empirical analysis of risk aversion and income growth. J. Labor Economics. 14 (1996) 626–653.
,[77]
, Behavioral portfolio selection, Encyclopedia of Quantitative Finance (2007).[78] Behavioral Portfolio Theory. J. Financial Quantitative Anal. 35 (2000) 127–151.
and ,[79] The behavioral life-cycle hypothesis. Economic Inquiry. 26 (1988) 609–643.
and ,[80] Discrete-time behavioral portfolio selection under cumulative prospect theory. J. Econom. Dynamics Control. 61 (2015) 283–302. | Zbl
, and ,[81] A behavioral model for asset allocation. Financial Markets Portfolio Manag. 17 (2003) 15–42.
and ,[82] An Algorithm for Fast Recovery of Sparse Causal Graphs. Soc. Sci. Comput. Rev. 9 (1991) 62–71.
and ,[83] Causation, prediction, and search. MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts (2000). | Zbl
, and ,[84]
, What Is Behavioral Finance? Handbook of Finance (2008).[85] Investor Overconfidence and Trading. In Vol. 19 (2006) 1531–1565.
, and ,[86] Investor Overconfidence and Trading Volume. In Vol. 19 (2014) 1531–1565.
, , , , and ,[87] Inadmissibility of the Usual Estimator for the Mean of a Multivariate Normal Distribution, in Proceedings of the Third Berkeley Symp. Math. Statist. Probab (1956) 197–206. | Zbl
,[88] Measures of risk. J. Banking. Finance 26 (2002) 1253–1272.
,[89] Rational choice and the framing of decisions. J. Businessusiness 59 (1986) 251–278.
and ,[90] What is your level of overconfidence? A strictly incentive compatible measurement of absolute and relative overconfidence, Utrecht School of Economics, Tjalling C. Koopmans Research Institute (2009) 9–20.
, and ,[91] Perspectives on Behavioral Finance: Does ``Irrationality” Disappear with Wealth? Evidence from Expectations and Actions. NBER Macroeconomics Annual. 18 (2003) 139–194.
,[92] Overconfidence, investor sentiment, and evolution. J. Financial Intermediation 10 (2001) 138–170.
,[93] Behavioral portfolio selection with loss control. Acta Math. Sinica, English Ser. 27 (2011) 255–274. | Zbl
, and ,[94] Markowitz’s mean-variance portfolio selection with regime switching: A continuous-time model. SIAM J. Control Optimiz. 42 (2003) 1466–1482. | Zbl
and ,Cité par Sources :