The EGARCH model of Nelson [29] is one of the most successful ARCH models which may exhibit characteristic asymmetries of financial time series, as well as long memory. The paper studies the covariance structure and dependence properties of the EGARCH and some related stochastic volatility models. We show that the large time behavior of the covariance of powers of the (observed) ARCH process is determined by the behavior of the covariance of the (linear) log-volatility process; in particular, a hyperbolic decay of the later covariance implies a similar hyperbolic decay of the former covariances. We show, in this case, that normalized partial sums of powers of the observed process tend to fractional brownian motion. The paper also obtains a (functional) CLT for the corresponding partial sums' processes of the EGARCH model with short and moderate memory. These results are applied to study asymptotic behavior of tests for long memory using the R/S statistic.
Mots clés : EGARCH models, long-memory, partial sums, rescaled range
@article{PS_2002__6__311_0, author = {Surgailis, Donatas and Viano, Marie-Claude}, title = {Long memory properties and covariance structure of the {EGARCH} model}, journal = {ESAIM: Probability and Statistics}, pages = {311--329}, publisher = {EDP-Sciences}, volume = {6}, year = {2002}, doi = {10.1051/ps:2002017}, mrnumber = {1943153}, language = {en}, url = {http://www.numdam.org/articles/10.1051/ps:2002017/} }
TY - JOUR AU - Surgailis, Donatas AU - Viano, Marie-Claude TI - Long memory properties and covariance structure of the EGARCH model JO - ESAIM: Probability and Statistics PY - 2002 SP - 311 EP - 329 VL - 6 PB - EDP-Sciences UR - http://www.numdam.org/articles/10.1051/ps:2002017/ DO - 10.1051/ps:2002017 LA - en ID - PS_2002__6__311_0 ER -
%0 Journal Article %A Surgailis, Donatas %A Viano, Marie-Claude %T Long memory properties and covariance structure of the EGARCH model %J ESAIM: Probability and Statistics %D 2002 %P 311-329 %V 6 %I EDP-Sciences %U http://www.numdam.org/articles/10.1051/ps:2002017/ %R 10.1051/ps:2002017 %G en %F PS_2002__6__311_0
Surgailis, Donatas; Viano, Marie-Claude. Long memory properties and covariance structure of the EGARCH model. ESAIM: Probability and Statistics, Tome 6 (2002), pp. 311-329. doi : 10.1051/ps:2002017. http://www.numdam.org/articles/10.1051/ps:2002017/
[1] The Statistical Analysis of Time Series. Wiley, New York (1971). | MR | Zbl
,[2] Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics. J. Econometrics 73 (1996) 5-59. | MR | Zbl
,[3] Convergence of Probability Measures. Wiley, New York (1968). | MR | Zbl
,[4] Modeling and pricing long memory in stock market volatility. J. Econometrics 73 (1996) 151-184. | Zbl
and ,[5] On the detection and estimation of long memory in stochastic volatility. J. Econometrics 83 (1998) 325-348. | MR | Zbl
, and ,[6] Time Series. Data Analysis and Theory. Holt, Rinehart and Winston, New York (1975). | MR | Zbl
,[7] The invariance principle for stationary processes. Theory Probab. Appl. 15 (1970) 487-489. | MR | Zbl
,[8] Moments and dynamic structure of a time-varying-parameter stochastic volatility in mean model. Preprint (2001). | MR | Zbl
,[9] Modeling volatility persistence of speculative returns: A new approach. J. Econometrics 73 (1996) 185-215. | MR | Zbl
and ,[10] Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity with estimates of the variance of U.K. inflation. Econometrica 50 (1982) 987-1008. | MR | Zbl
,[11] Stochastic volatility, edited by G.S. Maddala and C.R. Rao. North Holland, Amsterdam, Handb. Statist. 14 (1993) 119-191. | MR
, and ,[12] Rescaled variance and related tests for long memory in volatility and levels. Preprint (1999). | Zbl
, and ,[13] Asymptotic normality of regression estimators with long memory errors. Statist. Probab. Lett. 29 (1996) 317-335. | MR | Zbl
, and ,[14] LARCH, leverage and long memory. Preprint (2000).
, , and ,[15] A model for long memory conditional heteroskedasticity. Ann. Appl. Probab. (2000) (forthcoming). | MR | Zbl
, and ,[16] Long memory in stochastic volatility, edited by J. Knight and S. Satchell, Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets. Butterworth & Heineman, Oxford (1998).
,[17] Fourth moment structure of a family of first order exponential GARCH models, Preprint. Econometric Theory (to appear). | MR | Zbl
, and ,[18] Limit theorems for functionals of moving averages. Ann. Probab. 25 (1997) 1636-1669. | MR | Zbl
and ,[19] Fractional differencing. Biometrika 68 (1981) 165-176. | MR | Zbl
,[20] Long term storage capacity of reservoirs. Trans. Amer. Soc. Civil Engrg. 116 (1951) 770-799.
,[21] Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root? J. Econometrics 54 (1992) 159-178. | Zbl
, , and ,[22] Long memory in stock market prices. Econometrica 59 (1991) 1279-1313. | Zbl
,[23] Real and spurious long-memory properties of stock market data (with comments). J. Business Econom. Statist. 16 (1998) 261-283. | MR
and ,[24] Gibbs Random Fields. Kluwer, Dordrecht (1991). | MR | Zbl
and ,[25] Statistical methodology for non-periodic cycles: From the covariance to R/S analysis. Ann. Econom. Social Measurement 1 (1972) 259-290.
,[26] Limit theorems of the self-normalized range for weakly and strongly dependent processes. Z. Wahrsch. Verw. Geb. 31 (1975) 271-285. | MR | Zbl
,[27] Robust R/S analysis of long run serial correlation. Bull. Int. Statist. Inst. 48 (1979) 59-104. | MR | Zbl
and ,[28] Robustness of the rescaled range R/S in the measurement of noncyclic long run statistical dependence. Water Resources Research 5 (1969) 967-988.
and ,[29] Conditional heteroskedasticity in asset returns: A new approach. Econometrica 59 (1991) 347-370. | MR | Zbl
,[30] Testing for strong serial correlation and dynamic conditional heteroskedasticity in multiple regression. J. Econometrics 47 (1991) 67-84. | MR | Zbl
,[31] The memory of stochastic volatility models. J. Econometrics 101 (2001) 195-218. | MR | Zbl
,[32] Nonlinear time series with long memory: A model for stochastic volatility. J. Statist. Plan. Inf. 68 (1998) 359-371. | MR | Zbl
and ,[33] Modelling Financial Time Series. Wiley, Chichester (1986). | Zbl
,Cité par Sources :