A Dual Method For Evaluation of Dynamic Risk in Diffusion Processes
ESAIM: Control, Optimisation and Calculus of Variations, Tome 26 (2020), article no. 96.

We propose a numerical method for risk evaluation defined by a backward stochastic differential equation. Using dual representation of the risk measure, we convert the risk evaluation to a simple stochastic control problem where the control is a certain Radon-Nikodym derivative process. By exploring the maximum principle, we show that a piecewise-constant dual control provides a good approximation on a short interval. A dynamic programming algorithm extends the approximation to a finite time horizon. Finally, we illustrate the application of the procedure to financial risk management in conjunction with nested simulation and on a multidimensional portfolio valuation problem.

DOI : 10.1051/cocv/2020018
Classification : 60J60, 60H35, 49L20, 49M25, 49M29
Mots-clés : Dynamic risk measures, forward–backward stochastic differential equations, stochastic maximum principle, financial risk management
@article{COCV_2020__26_1_A96_0,
     author = {Ruszczy\'nski, Andrzej and Yao, Jianing},
     title = {A {Dual} {Method} {For} {Evaluation} of {Dynamic} {Risk} in {Diffusion} {Processes}},
     journal = {ESAIM: Control, Optimisation and Calculus of Variations},
     publisher = {EDP-Sciences},
     volume = {26},
     year = {2020},
     doi = {10.1051/cocv/2020018},
     mrnumber = {4181027},
     zbl = {1458.60090},
     language = {en},
     url = {http://www.numdam.org/articles/10.1051/cocv/2020018/}
}
TY  - JOUR
AU  - Ruszczyński, Andrzej
AU  - Yao, Jianing
TI  - A Dual Method For Evaluation of Dynamic Risk in Diffusion Processes
JO  - ESAIM: Control, Optimisation and Calculus of Variations
PY  - 2020
VL  - 26
PB  - EDP-Sciences
UR  - http://www.numdam.org/articles/10.1051/cocv/2020018/
DO  - 10.1051/cocv/2020018
LA  - en
ID  - COCV_2020__26_1_A96_0
ER  - 
%0 Journal Article
%A Ruszczyński, Andrzej
%A Yao, Jianing
%T A Dual Method For Evaluation of Dynamic Risk in Diffusion Processes
%J ESAIM: Control, Optimisation and Calculus of Variations
%D 2020
%V 26
%I EDP-Sciences
%U http://www.numdam.org/articles/10.1051/cocv/2020018/
%R 10.1051/cocv/2020018
%G en
%F COCV_2020__26_1_A96_0
Ruszczyński, Andrzej; Yao, Jianing. A Dual Method For Evaluation of Dynamic Risk in Diffusion Processes. ESAIM: Control, Optimisation and Calculus of Variations, Tome 26 (2020), article no. 96. doi : 10.1051/cocv/2020018. http://www.numdam.org/articles/10.1051/cocv/2020018/

[1] P. Artzner, F. Delbaen, J.M. Eber and D. Heath, Thinking Coherently. RISK 10 (1997) 68–71.

[2] P. Artzner, F. Delbaen, J.M. Eber and D. Heath, Coherent Measures of Risk. Math. Finance. 9 (1999) 203–228. | DOI | MR | Zbl

[3] P. Barrieu and N. El Karoui Optimal derivatve design under dynamic risk measures. Math. Contemp. Math. 351 (2004) 13–26. | DOI | MR | Zbl

[4] P. Barrieu and N. El Karoui Pricing, hedging and optimally designing derivatives via minimization of risk measures. Volume on Indifference Pricing. Princeton University Press, Princeton (2009). | Zbl

[5] J. Bion-Nadal, Dynamic risk measures: time consistency and risk measures from bmo martingales. Finance Stoch. 12 (2008) 219–244. | DOI | MR | Zbl

[6] B. Bouchard, N. Touzi, Discrete-time approximation and Monte Carlo simulation of backward stochastic differential equations. Stoch. Process. Appl 111 (2004) 175–206. | DOI | MR | Zbl

[7] P. Briand, B. Delyon and J. Mémin, On the robustness of backward stochastic differential equations. Stoch. Process. Appl. 97 (2002) 229–253. | DOI | MR | Zbl

[8] P. Cheridito, F. Delbaen and M. Kupper, Dynamic monetary risk measures for bounded discrete-time processes. Elec. J. Probab. 11 (2006) 57–106. | DOI | MR | Zbl

[9] P. Cheridito and M. Kupper, Composition of time-consistent dynamic monetary risk measures in discrete time. Int. J. Theor. Appl. Finance 14 (2011) 137–162. | DOI | MR | Zbl

[10] F. Coquet, Y. Hu, J. Mémin and S. Peng, Filtration-consistent nonlinear expectations and related g-expectations. Probab. Theor. Related Fields 123 (2002) 1–27. | DOI | MR | Zbl

[11] F. Delbaen, S. Peng and E. Rosazza Gianin Representation of the penalty term of dynamic concave utilities. Finance Stoch. 14 (2010) 449–472. | DOI | MR | Zbl

[12] K. Detlefsen and G. Scandolo, Conditional and Dynamic Convex Risk Measures. Finance Stoch. 9 (2005) 539–561. | DOI | MR | Zbl

[13] H. Föllmer and I. Penner, Convex risk measures and the dynamics of their penalty function. Stat. Decis. 24 (2006) 61–96. | MR | Zbl

[14] H. Föllmer and A. Schied, Convex measures of risk and trading constraints. Finance Stoch. 6 (2002) 429–447. | DOI | MR | Zbl

[15] H. Föllmer and A. Schied, Stochastic Finance: An Introduction in Discrete Time, 2nd ed. De Gruyter Berlin, Berlin (2004). | DOI | MR | Zbl

[16] M. Fritelli and Rosazza E. Gianin, Putting Order in Risk Measures. Math. Finance 16 (2006) 589–612.

[17] M. Fritelli and G. Scandolo, Risk measures and capital requirements for processes. Math. Finance 16 (2006) 589–612. | DOI | MR | Zbl

[18] E. Gobet, J.-P. Lemor and X. Warin, A regression-based Monte Carlo method to solve backward stochastic differential equations. Ann. Appl. Probab. 15 (2005) 2172–2202. | DOI | MR | Zbl

[19] E. Gobet and P. Turkedjiev, Linear regression MDP scheme for discrete backward stochastic differential equations under general conditions. Math. Comput. 85 (2016) 1359–91. | DOI | MR | Zbl

[20] M.B. Gordy and S. Juneja, Nested simulation in portfolio risk measurement. Federal Reserve Board FEDS (2008) 2–21. | Zbl

[21] P. Henry-Labordere, X. Tan and N. Touzi, A numerical algorithm for a class of BSDEs via the branching process. Stoch. Process. Appl. 124 (2014) 1112–1140. | DOI | MR | Zbl

[22] Y. Hu, B. Ni, A. Ruszczyński, J. Yao, Numerical Methods for Forward-Backward Stochastic Differential Equations with Application to Risk-Averse Option Portfolio Valuation. Technical report, Rutgers University, November (2018).

[23] N. Ikeda and S. Watanabe, Stochastic Differential Equations and Diffusion Processes. Kodansha, Tokyo (1981). | MR | Zbl

[24] P.E. Kloeden, E. Platen, Numerical Solution of Stochastic Differential Equations. Springer, Berlin (1992). | DOI | MR | Zbl

[25] R.J.A.Laeven and M. Stadje, Robust portfolio choice and indifference valuation. Math. Oper. Res. 39 (2014) 1109–1141. | DOI | MR | Zbl

[26] S.H. Lee and P.W. Glynn, Computing the distribution function of a conditional expectation via Monte Carlo simulation: discrete conditioning spaces. ACM Trans. Model. Comput. Simulation 13 (2002) 235–258. | Zbl

[27] V. Lesnevski, B.L. Nelson and J. Staum, Simulation of coherent risk measures, in Proceedings ofthe 2004 Winter Simulation Conference (2004) 1579–1585.

[28] V. Lesnevski, B.L. Nelson and J. Staum, Simulation of coherent risk measures based on generalized scenarios. Manage. Sci. 53 (2007) 1756–1769. | DOI

[29] S. Ludwig, J. Sirignano, R. Huang and G. Papanicolaou, A Forward-Backward Algorithm For Stochastic Control Problems, in Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Operations Research and Enterprise Systems (2012) 83–89.

[30] J. Ma, P. Protter and J. Douglas, Numerical methods for forward-backward stochastic differential equations. Ann. Appl. Probab. 6 (1996) 940–968. | MR | Zbl

[31] J. Ma, P. Protter, J. Martin and S. Torres, Numerical Method For Backward Stochastic Differential Equations. Ann. Appl. Probab. 12 (2002) 302–316. | MR | Zbl

[32] J. Ma and J. Yong, Forward-backward stochastic differential equations and their applications. No. 1702. Springer Science & Business Media, Berlin (1999). | MR | Zbl

[33] D. Nualart, The Malliavin Calculus and Related Topics. Springer, Berlin (2006). | MR | Zbl

[34] B. Øksendal and A. Sulem, Maximum Principles For Optimal Control Of Forward-Backward Stochastic Differential Equations With Jumps. SIAM J. Control Optimiz. 48 (2009) 2945–2976. | DOI | MR | Zbl

[35] E. Pardoux and S. Peng, Adapted solutions of backward stochastic differential equation. Syst. Control Lett. 14 (1990) 55–61. | DOI | MR | Zbl

[36] S. Peng, Nonlinear expectations, nonlinear evaluations and risk measures, Lecture Notes in Mathematics. Springer, Berlin (2004). | DOI | MR | Zbl

[37] M.-C. Quenez and A. Sulem, BSDEs with jumps, optimization and applications to dynamic risk measures. Stoch. Process. Appl. 123 (2013) 3328–3357. | DOI | MR | Zbl

[38] F. Riedel, Dynamic coherent risk measures. Stoch. Process. Appl. 112 (2004) 185–200. | DOI | MR | Zbl

[39] R.T. Rockafellar, S. Uryasev, Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions. J. Bank. Finance 26 (2002) 1443–1471. | DOI

[40] A. Ruszczyński, Nonlinear Optimization. Princeton University Press, Princeton (2006). | DOI | MR | Zbl

[41] A. Ruszczyński, Risk-averse dynamic programming for Markov decision processes. Math. Program. Ser. B 125 (2010) 235–261. | DOI | MR | Zbl

[42] A. Ruszczyński and A. Shapiro, Optimization of convex risk functions. Math. Oper. Res. 31 (2006) 433–542. | DOI | MR | Zbl

[43] A. Ruszczyński and A. Shapiro, Conditional Risk Mapping. Math. Oper. Res. 31 (2006) 544–561. | DOI | MR | Zbl

[44] A. Ruszczyński, J. Yao, A Risk-Averse Analog of the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman Equation. SIAM Control and Its Application Conference Proceedings (2015).

[45] A. Shapiro, D. Dentcheva and A. Ruszczyński, Lectures on Stochastic Programming. Modeling and Theory. SIAM-Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Philadelphia (2009). | DOI | MR

[46] M. Stadje, Extending dynamic convex risk measures from discrete time to continuous time: a convergence approach. Insurance Math. Econ. 47 (2010) 391–404. | DOI | MR | Zbl

[47] J. Yong and X.Y. Zhou, Stochastic Controls: Hamiltonian Systems and HJB Equations. Springer-Verlag, New York (1999). | DOI | MR | Zbl

[48] J. Zhang, Some Fine Properties of Backward Stochastic Differential Equations, with Applications. Ph.D. dissertation, Purdue University (2001). | MR

[49] J. Zhang, Numerical method for backward stochastic differential equations. Ann. Appl. Probab. 14 (2004) 459–488. | Zbl

[50] J. Zhang, Backward Stochastic Differential Equations. Springer, New York (2017). | DOI | MR

Cité par Sources :

This publication was supported by the NSF Award DMS-1907522.